Message-ID: <004401be31ff$33277d00$3619fea9@jay98> Date: Sun, 27 Dec 1998 15:12:49 -1000 From: Jay Hanson <mailto:j@QMAIL.COM> Subject: Re: "eMergy" To: mailto:DEVEL-L@AMERICAN.EDU
----- Original Message ----- From: Wilbur Streett <mailto:WStreett@MAIL.MONMOUTH.COM>>I think it was about a year ago when you claimed that all of Economics was
>subject to the "Laws of Thermodynamics" and I spent a lot of time proving
>than your position was based on a bunch of false assumptions.
You "proved" the laws of thermodynamics do not apply to economics? <G> My goodness Wilbur! Do some research -- you owe it to your kids.
In his book "Of Men and Galaxies", cosmologist Fred Hoyle sets out our physical context -- its' a one-shot affair:
"It has been often said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ore gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only." [1]
More recently, David Price offered this stunning commentary:
"The human species may be seen as having evolved in the service of entropy, and it cannot be expected to outlast the dense accumulations of energy that have helped define its niche. Human beings like to believe they are in control of their destiny, but when the history of life on Earth is seen in perspective, the evolution of Homo sapiens is merely a transient episode that acts to redress the planet's energy balance." [2]
Joseph Tainter has studied about two dozen "collapsed" civilizations. He found that civilizations collapse when they become too complex for their energy base.
Tainter points out that capitalism is a system that inherently becomes more-and-more complex and demands more-and-more energy. Thus, the only possible outcome for us will be the END of consumer society -- one way or another:
"Energy has always been the basis of cultural complexity and it always will be. … the past clarifies potential paths to the future. One often-discussed path is cultural and economic simplicity and lower energy costs. This could come about through the 'crash' that many fear – a genuine collapse over a period of one or two generations, with much violence, starvation, and loss of population. The alternative is the 'soft landing' that many people hope for - a voluntary change to solar energy and green fuels, energy-conserving technologies, and less overall consumption. This is a utopian alternative that, as suggested above, will come about only if severe, prolonged hardship in industrial nations makes it attractive, and if economic growth and consumerism can be removed from the realm of ideology." [3]
Gever et al. [p. 255] has calculated that if we wait until the oil "peak" before starting a crash program in alternative energy systems, net energy could drop to 30% of present values before starting to climb again. [4]
Based upon Joseph Tainter's research, global social collapse will coincide with the end of oil -- about 2005. [5]
Jay ------------------------------------
[1] Hoyle, 1964, p. 64
[2] ENERGY AND HUMAN EVOLUTION, by David Price; Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Volume 16, Number 4, March 1995, pp. 301-19; http://dieoff.com/page137.htm
[3] COMPLEXITY, PROBLEM SOLVING, AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES, by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996 from GETTING DOWN TO EARTH: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics, Island Press, 1996 http://dieoff.com/page134.htm
[4] See the graph at http://dieoff.com/page143.htm
[5] THE END OF CHEAP OIL, Scientific American, March, 1998, by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère http://dieoff.com/page140.htm