Message-ID: <330259D8.3D5F@mind.net> Date: Thu, 13 Feb 1997 00:01:28 +0000 From: "B. Diamond" <mailto:bdiamond@mind.net> Subject: Psuedoscience??? To: mailto:DEVEL-L@AMERICAN.EDU
Well Steve???
>
> Mass starvation, disease will be inevitable results of
> unchecked population growth, Cornell ecologists predict
> Resource stewardship no longer enough, science society told
>
> HOLD FOR RELEASE: 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, FEB. 9, 1996
>
> Contact: Roger Segelken
> Office: (607) 255-9736
> E-mail: mailto:hrs2@cornell.edu
>
> BALTIMORE -- If humans can't control the explosive population
> growth in the coming century, disease and starvation will do
> it, Cornell University ecologists have concluded from an
> analysis of Earth's dwindling resources.
> A grim future -- without enough arable land, water and energy
> to grow food for 12 billion people -- is all but inevitable
> and all too soon, a worried David Pimentel today (Feb. 9)
> told an American Association for the Advancement of Science
> (AAAS) session on "How Many People Can the Earth Support?"
> "Environmentally sound agricultural technologies will not be
> sufficient to ensure adequate food supplies for future
> generations unless the growth of human population is
> simultaneously curtailed," the Cornell professor of ecology
> said, speaking for researchers who produced the report,
> "Impact of Population Growth on Food Supplies and
> Environment."
> The "optimum population" that the Earth can support with a
> comfortable standard of living is less than 2 billion,
> including fewer than 200 million people in the United States,
> the Cornell scientist noted. But if the world population
> reaches 12 billion, as it is predicted to in 50 years, as
> many as 3 billion people will be malnourished and vulnerable
> to disease, the Cornell analysis of resources determined.
> The planet's agricultural future -- with declining
> productivity of cropland -- can be seen in China today,
> Pimentel suggested. China now has only 0.08 hectare (ha) of
> cropland per capita, compared to the worldwide average of
> 0.27 ha per capita and the 0.5 ha per capita considered
> minimal for the diverse diet currently available to residents
> of the United States and Europe. Nearly one-third of the
> world's cropland has been abandoned during the past 40 years
> because erosion makes it unproductive, he said.
> -more-
>
> Competition for dwindling supplies of clean water is
> intensifying, too, the Cornell ecologists concluded.
> Agricultural production consumes more fresh water than any
> other human activity -- about 87 percent -- and 40 percent of
> the world's people live in regions that directly compete for
> water that is being consumed faster than it is replenished.
> Further, water shortages exacerbate disease problems, the
> ecologists' analysis pointed out. About 90 percent of the
> diseases in developing countries result from a lack of clean
> water. Worldwide, about 4 billion cases of disease are
> contracted from water each year and approximately 6 million
> people die from water-borne disease, Pimentel said. "When
> people are sick with diarrhea, malaria or other serious
> disease, anywhere from 5 to 20 percent of their food intake
> is lost to stress of the disease," he said.
> Prices of fossil fuels will rise as the world's supplies are
> depleted. While the United States can afford to import more
> petroleum when its reserves are exhausted in the next 15 to
> 20 years, developing countries cannot, Pimentel said.
> "Already, the high price of imported fossil fuel makes it
> difficult, if not impossible, for poor farmers to power
> irrigation and provide for fertilizers and pesticides," he
> said.
> The analysis was conducted by Pimentel, professor of
> entomology and of ecology in the College of Agriculture and
> Life Sciences at Cornell; Xuewen Huang, a visiting scholar in
> the agriculture college; Ana Cordova, a graduate student in
> the agriculture college; and Marcia Pimentel, a researcher in
> Cornell's Division of Nutritional Sciences.
> The ecologists pointed to two alarming trends: At the same
> time that world population is growing geometrically, the per
> capita availability of grains, which make up 80 percent of
> the world's food, has been declining for the past 15 years.
> Food exports from the few countries that now have resources
> to produce surpluses will cease when every morsel is needed
> to feed their growing populations, the ecologists predicted.
> That will cause economic discomfort for the United States,
> which counts on food exports to help its balance of payments.
> But the real pain will wrack nations that can't grow enough,
> Pimentel said.
> "When global biological and physical limits to domestic food
> production are reached, food importation will no longer be a
> viable option for any country," he said. "At that point,
> food importation for the rich can only be sustained by
> starvation of the powerless poor."
BD