Message-ID: <002b01bd91be$b77bce80$99745ecc@jay95> Date: Sat, 6 Jun 1998 16:48:13 -1000 From: Jay Hanson <mailto:j@QMAIL.COM> Subject: Another oil expert sees peak 2000 to 2005! To: mailto:DEVEL-L@AMERICAN.EDU
Another oil expert sees peak 2000 to 2005!See the current (June 15) issue of Forbes! CHEAP OIL: enjoy it while it lasts. p. 84
Franco Bernabe, chief executive of the Italian oil company ENI, sees a global oil production peak and 1970s-style oil shocks beginning between 2000 and 2005. ----
In November, 1997, the International Energy Agency (IEA) convened an Oil Conference in Paris. Jean Laherrere and Colin Campbell presented three papers on oil depletion (against Adelman and Lynch from MIT). [ See Laherrere and Campbell's Scientific American paper: THE END OF CHEAP OIL at: http://dieoff.org/page140.htm ]
As a result of this conference, IEA prepared a paper for the G8 Energy Ministers' Meeting in Moscow March, 31, 1998. IEA followed Laherrere and Campbell's view and forecast a peak in conventional oil for 2010 at 78.9 Mb/d and decrease in 2020 at 72.2 Mb/d. [Source: Laherrere personal correspondence] See WORLD ENERGY PROSPECTS TO 2020. http://www.iea.org/g8/world/oilsup.htm
According to Richard Duncan, this represents a significant reversal of IEA position: "This is a real stand-down for them because until recently they were in the Julian Simon no-limits camp." [personal correspondence] See Duncan's energy paper THE WORLD PETROLEUM LIFE-CYCLE at: http://dieoff.org/page133.htm
THE COMING OIL CRISIS, by C.J. Campbell; Multi-Science Publishing Company & Petroconsultants, 1997 ISBN 0906522110 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0906522110/3088-4711339-639335 See a sample at http://dieoff.org/page131.htm
GeoDestinies, by Walter Youngquist PhD & Chair Emeritus, Department of Geology, University of Oregon; National Book Company, 1997; ISBN 0894202995 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ats-query/4520-3664168-414119 See a sample at http://dieoff.org/page132.htm
GET READY FOR ANOTHER OIL SHOCK!, by L. F. Ivanhoe from THE FUTURIST, January/February, 1997 http://dieoff.org/page90.htm
The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. Institute on Energy and Man, June 27, 1996 *UPDATED* http://dieoff.org/page125.htm
Jay