Message-ID: <354D20EA.61F9@tmn.com> Date: Sun, 3 May 1998 20:59:06 -0500 From: tom abeles <mailto:tabeles@tmn.com> Subject: Re: THE END OF CHEAP OIL To: mailto:DEVEL-L@AMERICAN.EDU
Jay's post of the Scientific American article coupled with the old article of the Odum's raises two issues which are wothy of pursuing.The first article, while pointing out the potential end or "cheap oil" ends by also pointing out that there are a number of alternatives, other than conservation or radical changes in lifestyle which would permit humans to continue to be energy gluttons. These alternatives are not the sustainable ones of conservation, solar, wind and biomass as the dominant players.
What, indeed, does this mean. Will the "greens" be damned again for crying wolf as the world's economy continues on its merry way and the ghost of Julian Simon reaches out from the grave.
Second, the Odum article was written in '76 and assumes that money is tied to productivity when in fact, today, 20+ years later, in the age of instant electronics, money has been decoupled from the material production of goods. We have a fudge factor which trys to fix the equation called "knowledge" where the value of a company is trading at several times its asset value because of this intangible factor. But just the float, globally, of currency is several multiples of the goods that are moving internationally. Money making money on money with its concomitant disruption of the traditional power structures.
In essence, the "end of cheap oil" has little or no meaning from the models of Odum or in relation to the available supply of oil. Think about what would have happened if Iraq had won and raised the price of oil, just a little bit. The US could not import Tomatoes from Holland flown in on 747, Nike shoes made in Asia or apples from Chile and oranges from the middle east.
The systems are decoupled and held hostage by the whimsy of the TNC's whose economic power exceeds most of the sovereign nations of the world.
As Bruce Sterling has said, in his novelet, Green Days in Brunei: "The technical elite were errand boys....(They) were owned by the abstract ones and zeros in the banker's microchips." Yes it is nice to think about saving the earth and working with renewable and sustainable resources. But, in the end somebody has to consider the "gold(en) rule"
cheers
tom abeles