Message-ID: <34660c06.33242257@mail.zetnet.co.uk> Date: Thu, 6 Nov 1997 20:18:05 GMT From: Alan Howes <mailto:alan.howes@zetnet.co.uk> Subject: Re: Jubillee 2000/World Bank-IMF debt forgiveness plans To: mailto:DEVEL-L@AMERICAN.EDU
----=_346225fd398882370c06abb9.MFSBCHJLHS Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printableDear Jon -=20
On Fri, 31 Oct 1997 17:16:05 -0500, Jonathan Sanford mailto:<JSANFORD@CRS.LOC.GOV> wrote:
>The Jubilee 2000 campaign is one of several proposals for the =
forgiveness of >debt owed by low-income countries. =20
<etc.>Well, I've already replied to some of this, in my message of 11.58 am on 11/4/97 (Re: Poor Country Debt - Reply). So I won't repeat that. Sorry that you must be rather deluged by stuff from me by now - but I promise I won't send you anything for the next two weeks! I will be in Tenerife, Canary Islands, swimming, walking and sunning myself! - not to mention sampling the food and wine. (Over 3 years since we were in DC and Va. - perhaps New England in the fall for our next US trip.)
>William Peters, a co-chairman of the campaign. says the goal should be
>renewal and regeneration, not merely stabilization of debtor countries' =
debt >situations. =20
Well yes - but I'm not sure where in J2000's literature this is addressed specifically.>The campaign says there should be no economic condition, but
>rather only political conditions, for debt forgiveness. For instance, =
countries >would be required to retrieve all flight capital they have lost because =
of >corruption or other illegal capital flight. =20
Again, I haven't seen this last point specifically mentioned. And the charter makes it clear there would be economic conditions, to be determined by arbitration.>Likewise, countries like Nigeria would
>be required to institute a civilian government and stop the export of =
illegal >drugs. =20
I suspect Peters was intending to give examples of what _might_ be required here, rather than what _would_ be required.>Proponents say countries should be free to manage their economic
>policies as they wish, and this will promote better policy once =
governments >realize that forgiveness will allow them to keep all the gain from =
improvements >in their economy and they will not have to give creditors much of the =
increased >income that economic policy reform would generate.
This seems wishy-washy compared with the Charter (and I just checked - the Charter is still up-to-date).>M.J. Dent, a coo-chairman of the campaign, noted in 1996 that 35 African
>countries owed $116 billion to bilateral official creditors, $59 billion=
to >multilateral agencies, and $53 billion to commercial creditors. He said=
the >creditors should all absorb the cost of debt reductions with their own
>resources.
In 1997 document on the Initiative, the IMF quoted 1995 (IIRC) figures similar to these, except that the commercial creditors' figure was $30 m. (see Dunblane Briefing on Debt.) And of course, a lot has been written off in one respect or the other.
>Dent says the debt owed by the African countries is not worth its face =
value. So do I ! >Therefore, he says governments can forgive it without sustaining =
substantial >losses, since the amount they are forgiving is really worth less than it
>appears. Jubilee 2000 literature make it clear that debt forgiveness =
would be >just the first step. Bilateral, multilateral, and commercial creditors =
would be >expected to make very large amounts of new loan capital available to the
>newly-forgiven countries for the next several decades.
Not sure where this comes from. In fact, the impression I get is that J2000 would rather there were as few new loans as possible, and those there are should be very carefully monitored. I think this comes over in the Charter and elsewhere. After all, IMO much of the debt burden arose not because it was needed for the LDCs to pursue human development, but because the North had spare money and lent it out so that the LDCs could buy expensive projects and arms that they didn't need - just like a car salesman!>The Jubilee 2000 plan employs dubious statistics in a number of =
instances in >the development of its argument. For example, it recommends that the =
World >Bank sell its gold to help fund the cost of debt forgiveness. In fact, =
the World >Bank has no gold (the IMF has gold instead). The proposal to wipe out =
the >entire financial reserves of the World Bank to cover a one-time =
forgiveness of >debt would destabilize the institution and effect potentially serious =
losses--not >to mention drying up the Bank as a source of new lending. =20
I've picked up these points in previous posts.>Likewise, the
>Jubilee 2000 advocates are rather simplistic in their assumption that
>developing countries will promptly undertake sound economic reform once
>they know that they will get to keep all the economic proceeds of such =
reform. >As though this were the only reason they are hesitant to reform.
I think J2000 is more hard-nosed than this. (I haven't met Peters or Dent, but Pettifor is certainly hard-nosed!) Anyway, who is it kept giving massive loans to Mobutu when they knew fine he was as corrupt as h*ll - the IMF of course! (Prompted by Reagan, I believe.)>The Jubilee 2000 plan is very casual regarding the cost of forgiveness =
to >creditors. As noted, the multilateral banks would be largely put out of
>business if they had to wipe out $59 billion in debt (much of which is =
not yet >due and is not actually costing the debtor countries anything). =20
But we are not talking about finding $59 m. tomorrow - we are talking largely of future cash flows. What's sauce for the goose ... Look at the cost of HIPC (now $7.4 bn. over eight(?) years?) - you could double this and we are still not really talking about the collapse of the World Financial Order.>They certainly
>would not be in a position to make major new loans in coming decades.
>Likewise, bilateral official lenders would have to absorb the cost of =
debt >reduction in their budgets. In the United States, for instance, new =
money >would have to be appropriated to expunge the debts currently =
outstanding. >Whether this could be encompassed in the current plan for reductions in =
the >Federal deficit is a matter of doubt. Whether the United States would =
be >willing to appropriate billions more to assist the countries where it =
has just >wiped out debt is also dubious. Debt forgiveness costs real; it is not =
a mere >accounting notation.
We're getting into economists' territory now - but as far as Bilateral is concerned, UK is setting a good example which I'm sure other countries could _afford_ to follow. Personally, I suspect it's _power_ they are concerned about losing.>Just how commercial creditors could be required to forgive debt that =
poor >countries owe to them is also unclear. If governments require such
>forgiveness, then the commercial firms will logically expect that =
governments >will pay them for they debts they relinquish. The fifth amendment to =
the US >constitution prohibits such takings without compensation. Other =
countries >have similar laws. If forgiveness is voluntary, they the free rider =
problem is >evident. The one bank that refuses to forgive will get repaid, so =
everyone will >want to be that bank.
My suspicion is that if this is a problem anywhere, it's only in US where bad debts can't be written off as tax losses. How much are we talking about? Perhaps Ted Turner could help out! :-)>Even if all the debt is forgiven on Monday, we still need to ask what =
the poor >countries will do for credit when Tuesday comes around. Commercial
>creditors are unlikely to sink new loans into countries where they have =
just >lost billions--particularly if there is no likelihood that countries =
will take the >necessary steps to make their economies more productive, efficient, and
>attractive to private investors. Otherwise, everyone will simply assume=
that a >new debt forgiveness exercise will be needed in a couple years when the
>debtor countries find they cannot afford to service the new debt they =
received >after the Jubilee 2000 round of forgiveness. If their economy and their
>international economic situation is not made sustainable by debt =
forgiveness, >such forgiveness is a fleeting thing that will effect no real change.
J2000 stresses that this is a one-off exercise, to cope with a one-off problem. The current crisis is unique - see "How it all began" on the web site or in the Dunblane Briefing.>The World Bank and IMF adopted a plan last October (1996) which presumes
>that low income countries can have up to 85% of the debt they owe to =
bilateral >lenders forgiven if they are willing to undertake major economic =
reforms. >Forgiveness would be effected through the Paris Club and would not place
>costs on the creditors immediately. An agreement with the IMF would be =
a >prerequisite. The World Bank and IMF would also be willing to forgive =
or to >restructure (on highly concessional terms) debts owed to them once =
bilateral >debts have been written down and economic reforms have been adopted. I
>don't think the World Bank/IMF debt forgiveness plan is large enough or =
that >enough countries are eligible. =20
I'm with you there.>However, it does attempt to answer the real
>questions that must be addressed before debt forgiveness can be =
effective in >alleviating the problems of heavily-indebted low income countries.
And I agree with that too. Must fly! Updated copy of my Bibliography attached.All the best.
-- Alan P Howes, Public Transport Consultant Alan Howes Associates, Perthshire, FK15 9JL, Scotland mailto:alan.howes@zetnet.co.uk http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/alanhowes/*** A debt-free start for a billion people in the world's poorest *** *** countries - Jubilee 2000, http://www.oneworld.org/jubilee2000/ ***
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