Message-ID: <3.0.3.32.19971130162147.00d5f25c@aloha.net> Date: Sun, 30 Nov 1997 16:21:47 -1000 From: Jay Hanson <mailto:j@QMAIL.COM> Subject: Re: Personal suffering WILL BE IMPOSED To: mailto:DEVEL-L@AMERICAN.EDU
At 03:40 PM 11/30/97 -0800, V. Bruce wrote:>This happened before in the late 70's. Gas shortage in the US, no problem
>in Canada. I suspect the oil companies are creating an artificial
>shortage. To push up prices? Political intrigue - some sort of
>manipulation of power and supply? Who knows what's really going on.
>Anyone out there got the REAL story?
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Oil industry jargon has confused economists for many years.
If one persists in thinking of energy in terms of "money price", then one simply can not understand the energy issues. The key to understanding energy issues is look at the "energy price" of energy.
Typical quote from an oil-economist:
"One thing I have learned over the years is to distrust any projections of economically recoverable reserves." _______ EUR OIL The critical issue here is NOT "economically recoverable reserves", it is "energetically recoverable recources" or "EUR" oil. In fact, official estimates of EUR oil have "varied little" over the last 50 years.
"For many years geologists and oil companies have published estimates of the total amount of crude oil that will ultimately be recovered from the earth over all time. Remarkably, these assessments of Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) oil have varied little over the past half century."
[ This is direct quote from a 1996 World Resources Institute paper by James MacKenzie. Take a look: http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/eur-oil.html ] ________________________________________________ IN 1970, OIL PRODUCTION IN THE LOWER-48 "PEAKED" 40 years ago, geologist M. King Hubbert developed a method for projecting future oil production and predicted that oil production in the lower-48 states would peak about 1970. This prediction has proved to be remarkably accurate. Both total and peak yields have risen slightly compared to Hubbert's original estimate, but the timing of the peak and the general downward trend of production were correct. [ See the graph for the lower-48 at: http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/productn.html ]
Global oil production will begin to "peak" when approximately half of the "Estimated Ultimately Recoverable" oil has been recovered. The exact date is unknown, but it could be soon as the year 2000:
"Two important conclusions emerge from this discussion. First, if growth in world demand continues at a modest 2 percent per year, production could begin declining as soon as the year 2000. Second, even enormous (and unlikely) increases in EUR oil buy the world little more than another decade (from 2007 to 2018). In short, unless growth in world oil demand is sharply lower than generally projected, world oil production will probably begin its long-term decline soon -- and certainly within the next two decades." [Again from WRI, please take a look http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/futuroil.html ]
"It is reluctantly concluded that there is strong evidence that the restricted Hubbert Curve for the world's total EUR of oil may first peak about the year 2000, Fig. 4, after which it may fluctuate along a horizontal production line (restricted by Saudi Arabia/OPEC) before inevitable decline ..." [ from WORLD OIL, October 1995, FUTURE WORLD SUPPLIES, by L. F. Ivanhoe, http://dieoff.org/page85.htm ]
"At the time of writing in late 1996, there are still three more years to go until the end of the transition." [p. 59, THE COMING OIL CRISIS, by C. J. Campbell; Multi-Science Publishing Company & Petroconsultants, 1997; ISBN 0906522110 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0906522110/3088-4711339-639335 ] ________________ PETROCONSULTANTS Petroconsultants, is the World's leading supplier of Petroleum Exploration and Production Information, Data and Analysis.
With headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Petroconsultants maintains offices in London, Houston, Sydney and Singapore, supported by over 250 dedicated multilingual and multinational employees and a Worldwide network of correspondents and associates. [ see http://www.petroconsultants.com/ ]
"A new report on world oil resources, World Oil Supply 1930-2050 (Campbell and Laherre, Petroconsultants Pty. Ltd., 1995), concludes that the planet's oil supplies will be exhausted much sooner than previously thought.
"The report, written for oil industry insiders and priced at $32,000 per copy, concludes that world oil production and supply probably will peak as soon as the year 2000 and will decline to half the peak level by 2025. Large and permanent increases in oil prices are predicted after the year 2000." [ from EARTH ISLAND JOURNAL, Spring 1997, THE DEATH OF THE OIL ECONOMY, by Ted Trainer http://dieoff.org/page116.htm ] __________________ ECONOMIC IMPLOSION "The global price of oil after the supply crunch should follow the simplest economic law of supply and demand: There will be a major increase in crude oil and all other fuels' prices, accompanied by global hyperinflation, rationing, etc. After the associated economic implosion, many of the world's developed societies may look like today's Russia. The United States may be competing with China for every tanker of oil, with the Persian Gulf oil exporters preferring Chinese rockets to American paper dollars for their oil." [ from THE FUTURIST, January/February, 1997, GET READY FOR ANOTHER OIL SHOCK!, by L. F. Ivanhoe http://dieoff.org/page90.htm ]
For more -- including many graphs -- see FOSSILGATE: http://dieoff.org/page122.htm
Jay -- http://dieoff.org/page1.htm ----------------------------------------------------- Sustainable development both improves quality of life and retains continuity with physical conditions. To do both requires that social systems be equitable and physical systems circular. -----------------------------------------------------