Message-ID: <3.0.3.32.19970921085920.00908eb0@aloha.net> Date: Sun, 21 Sep 1997 08:59:20 -1000 From: Jay Hanson <mailto:j@QMAIL.COM> Subject: "Fossilgate" -- as soon as the year 2000 To: mailto:DEVEL-L@AMERICAN.EDU
When will global oil production peak? This question is never raised by oil companies or government officials. Indeed, "fossilgate" is the biggest coverup in history.40 years ago, geologist M. King Hubbert developed a method for projecting future oil production and predicted that oil production in the lower-48 states would peak about 1970. These predictions have proved to be remarkably accurate. Both total and peak yields have risen slightly compared to Hubbert's original estimate, but the timing of the peak and the general downward trend of production were correct.
Oil recovery for energy use is limited by the by the "energy cost" of recovery. If it takes more energy to find and recover a barrel of oil than the amount of energy recovered, then that oil will never be used for energy -- no matter how high the money price of energy.
Global oil production will begin to "peak" or "plateau" when approximately half of the "estimated ultimately recoverable" (EUR) oil has been recovered.
"For many years geologists and oil companies have published estimates of the total amount of crude oil that will ultimately be recovered from the earth over all time. Remarkably, these assessments of Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) oil have varied little over the past half century." [ http://www.wri.org/wri/energy/jm_oil/oil_esti.html ]
"Two important conclusions emerge from this discussion. First, if growth in world demand continues at a modest 2 percent per year, production could begin declining as soon as the year 2000. Second, even enormous (and unlikely) increases in EUR oil buy the world little more than another decade (from 2007 to 2018). In short, unless growth in world oil demand is sharply lower than generally projected, world oil production will probably begin its long-term decline soon -- and certainly within the next two decades." [ http://www.wri.org/wri/energy/jm_oil/oil_plau.html ]
"The global price of oil after the supply crunch should follow the simplest economic law of supply and demand: There will be a major increase in crude oil and all other fuels' prices, accompanied by global hyperinflation, rationing, etc. After the associated economic implosion, many of the world's developed societies may look like today's Russia. The United States may be competing with China for every tanker of oil, with the Persian Gulf oil exporters preferring Chinese rockets to American paper dollars for their oil." [ http://dieoff.org/page90.htm ] . . .
THE END OF OIL = THE END OF SOCIETY AS WE KNOW IT
There is NO substitute for energy. Although the economy treats energy just like any other resource, it is NOT like any other resource. Energy is the precondition for ALL other resources and oil is the most important form of energy we use, making up about 38 percent of the world energy supply.
NO other energy source equals oil's intrinsic qualities of extractablility, transportability, versatility and cost. These are the qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal as the front-line energy source in the industrialized world in the middle of this century, and they are as relevant today as they were then. [ http://dieoff.org/power.gif ]
Optimists tend to assume that the "quality" (e.g., liquid vs. solid) of energy we use is not significant, that an infinite amount of social capital is available to search for and produce energy, and that an infinite flow of solar energy is available for human use. Realists know that none of these assumptions is true.
"If one considers the last one hundred years of the U.S. experience, fuel use and economic output are highly correlated. An important measure of fuel efficiency is the ratio of energy use to the gross national product, E/GNP. The E/GNP ratio has fallen by about 42% since 1929. We find that the improvement in energy efficiency is due principally to three factors: (1) shifts to higher quality fuels such as petroleum and primary electricity; (2) shifts in energy use between households and other sectors; and (3) higher fuel prices. Energy quality is by far the dominant factor." [ http://dieoff.org/page17.htm#ENERGY ]
"In the end," says the Grand Inquisitor in Dostoevsky's parable, "in the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us," 'Make us your slaves, but feed us.'"
Jay =============================================================
additional web pages on global oil depletion:
http://www.petroconsultants.com/book/book.htm
http://www.wri.org/wri/energy/jm_oil/index.html
http://www.ecotopia.com/hubbert/campbell/camfull.htm
http://www.igc.apc.org/awea/wew/684-1.html
http://www.crest.org/renewables/thl/april96-oil.html
