Message-Id: <mailto:199508161600.LAA28792@wugate.wustl.edu> Date: Wed, 16 Aug 1995 09:00:00 -0700 From: Reed Hutchinson <mailto:macreed@UCLA.EDU> Subject: Re: Backup/archiving To: Multiple recipients of list IMAGELIB
> Joel Wolfson wrote:
>I agree with Mr. Schneider's response regarding the notion that whatever you
>choose for media and technology is likely to be history in 10 years. If you
>want to implement an archiving system, have part of your plan be to evaluate
>the system every 5 to 10 years. That way you won't end up with stable media
>and no way to retrieve it.
I believe we'll have CD's as a storage media for years to come. There will undoubtedly be improvements in the media (increased capacity etc.) but it's not going to go away overnight. I base my thinking primarily on the actions of the marketplace.
CD's, as we have seen, have virtually put an end to the vinyl-based record industry, and put a large dent in the pre-recorded tape market. Why?
Because the public has perceived this as a superior method of storing & playing back of audio. It is so good, that there is very little room left for perceptible improvement. Sure there are lab instruments and high-end audio technophiles who can assure you that the "Quadruple Multi-Delta-Sampled" (or some other nonsensical term) sound is far more pristine to the "Trained Ear" of the connoisseur. But to Joe SixPack, listening to the latest Rap group or Sheryl Crow, there's no difference, and no reason to trash all his CD's for the "Next BIG Thing"
But you say they did that just that with Vinyl records - Sure, but the "Perceptible Improvement" between vinyl and CD to the average user was quite large, and worth the price difference. The record industry has even made quite a killing on the re-release of old product on the new format - but I digress...
The point is, that unless something so far superior comes along as a storage media, CD's will remain a dominate force in the marketplace because there's very little room left for improving the media in the eyes (and ears) of the general public. And if they don't see an improvement, they won't buy it. CD's have put the music listener in the recording studio control room in terms of audio quality, and you can get much better than that.
Now when that new holographic system comes out, and I can have a virtual-cyber Sheryl Crow singing in my ear, I'll reconsider...
Reed Hutchinson UCLA Office of Instructional Development - Photographic Services 310-825-7725 mailto:<mailto:macreed@ucla.edu>