Message-Id: <199709041552.IAA17972@dns.ccit.arizona.edu> Date: Thu, 4 Sep 1997 08:56:02 -0700 From: Paul Andersen <mailto:paul_andersen@ONLINE.DISNEY.COM> Subject: Re: 20 Year Price List from 3 Day UCLA Extension Document Imaging To: mailto:IMAGELIB@LISTSERV.ARIZONA.EDU
This is not the first email I have seen posting information from a UCLA extension text. If I am not mistaken even cours handouts are protected by copyright. Have you received permission from the author or instructor to post this message?=========== REPLY PARTITION ===========
On 09/03/97, at 12:11 AM, Steve Gilheany wrote:
>20 Year Price List from 3 Day UCLA Extension Document Imaging Course
>
>-------
> Course Handout on the Cost of 1 TeraByte of Magnetic Disk Storage over the
>next 20 years.
>-------
>
>
>20 Year Price List for the Cost of 1 TeraByte of Magnetic Disk Storage (*1)
>
>1994 $1,000,000.00
>1995 $400,000.00
>1996 $160,000.00
>1997 $64,000.00
>1998 $25,600.00
>1999 $10,240.00
>2000 $4,096.00
>2001 $1,638.40
>2002 $655.36
>2003 $262.14
>2004 $104.86
>2005 $41.94
>2006 $16.78
>2007 $6.71
>2008 $2.68
>2009 $1.07
>2010 $0.43
>2011 $0.17
>2012 $0.07
>2013 $0.03
>2014 $0.01
>2015 $0.00
>
>-------
>Meta-Notes
>-------
>
>To the people who requested that I post this, thanks for your interest.
>
>To the people who offered suggestions and information, thanks for your
>support.
>
>Trademarks are the property of their respective holders. No warranty of
>any type is expressed or implied.
>
>Please see the note at the end for cross listing of this posting.
>
>Please consider using some or all of this posting in your newsletter with a
>note as to where it came from.
>
>Please email me your comments.
>
>If you receive questions on the accuracy or applicability of these
>estimates or have questions yourself, please email me.
>
>These listings, along with Microsoft Word, Excel, and Power Point (400
>slides) files will be posted at www.ArchiveBuilders.com after September 5,
>1997 under Course Notes. All of the information for these two one-page
>handouts is here, except the formatting information.
>
>
>-------
> Course Handout on the Cost of 1 TeraByte of Magnetic Disk Storage over the
>next 20 years.
>-------
>
>
>(This table is best viewed in a 9 point Courier font after being pasted
>into a word processor.)
>
>
>20 Year Price List for Cost of 1 TeraByte of Magnetic Disk Storage
>
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------
> ! ! ! ! !
> !Cost to Store!Cost to Store !Cost to Store !Cost to Store ! Cost
>Year!2 Thousand !1 Million !1 Thousand !One ! to
> !File Cabinets!Pages !Pages !Page ! Store
> !(1 TeraByte) !(50 GigaBytes)!(50 MegaBytes)!(50 KiloBytes)!1 TByte
> ! ! ! ! !
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------
> ! ! ! ! !
> !-60% per year! -60% per year! -60% per year! -60% per year!-60%/yr
> ! ! ! ! !
> ! *1 ! *1 ! *1 ! *1 ! *1
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------
> ! ! ! ! !
>1994 $1,000,000.00! $50,000.00 !$50.00 ! $0.05 $1,000,000.00
>1995 $400,000.00! $20,000.00 !$20.00 ! $0.02 $400,000.00
>1996 $160,000.00! $8,000.00 ! $8.00 ! $0.01 $160,000.00
>1997 $64,000.00! $3,200.00 ! $3.20 ! $0.003 $64,000.00
>1998 $25,600.00! $1,280.00 ! $1.28 ! $0.001 $25,600.00
>1999 $10,240.00! $512.00 ! $0.51 ! $0.001 $10,240.00
>2000 $4,096.00! $204.80 ! $0.20 ! $0.0002 $4,096.00
>2001 $1,638.40! $81.92 ! $0.08 ! $0.0001 $1,638.40
>2002 $655.36! $32.77 ! $0.03 ! $0.00003 $655.36
>2003 $262.14! $13.11 ! $0.01 ! $0.00001 $262.14
>2004 $104.86! $5.24 ! $0.01 ! $0.00001 $104.86
>2005 $41.94! $2.10 ! $0.002 ! $0.000002 $41.94
>2006 $16.78! $0.84 ! $0.001 ! $0.000001 $16.78
>2007 $6.71! $0.34 ! $0.0003 ! $0.0000003 $6.71
>2008 $2.68! $0.13 ! $0.0001 ! $0.0000001 $2.68
>2009 $1.07! $0.05 ! $0.0001 ! $0.0000001 $1.07
>2010 $0.43! $0.02 ! $0.00002 ! $0.00000002 $0.43
>2011 $0.17! $0.01 ! $0.00001 ! $0.00000001 $0.17
>2012 $0.07! $0.003 ! $0.000003 ! $0.000000003 $0.07
>2013 $0.03! $0.001 ! $0.000001 ! $0.000000001 $0.03
>2014 $0.01! $0.001 ! $0.000001 ! $0.000000001 $0.01
>2015 $0.00! $0.000 ! $0.000000 ! $0.000000000 $0.00
>
>
>
>*1 The current rate of decline in magnetic disk storage costs is based on
>prices over the last eight years. IBM's magnetoresistive head technology
>[that underlies IBM's influence on disk prices], has been increasing the
>areal bit density of magnetic disks at a rate of 60 percent per year since
>1989*. IBM projects that the 60 percent rate will continue for the
>foreseeable future*. IBM's laboratory results confirm this rate until at
>least the year 2000. And, while costs are decreasing, reliability has
>increased to a disk drive MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) of 1,000,000
>hours.*[*Source: The Era of Magnetoresistive Heads, Ed Grochowski, IBM
>Research Division, Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA., 1994]
>
>The historic rate of decline in magnetic disk storage cost is based on the
>5 MegaByte RAMAC disk drive introduced by IBM in June, 1957, at a monthly
>rental of $3,200.00*(in 1957 dollars), and on 1994 disk prices. The
>decline from the 1957 RAMAC cost of $100,000 per MByte (Adjusted to 1994
>dollars, and adjusted for IBM's historic desire to rent rather than sell),
>to the cost of $ 1 per MByte for drives available in 1994, represents a
>decline of 27 percent per year for 37 years.[*Source: IBM's Early
>Computers, by Charles J. Bashe, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1986.]
>
>
>{The storage MTBF (a component of system availability) of a document
>management system can be increased to the level desired through the use of
>RAID (Redundant Array of Inexpensive Disks) technology. Rev 22
>Archive Builders
>
>--------
>Course Handout on Computer Storage Requirements by Document Type
>--------
>
>[N.B. these estimates will help you size your system. After you have
>scanned in from 1 to 10 percent of your documents, you will know quite
>precisely how your documents match these estimates and you can apply a
>conversion factor. For example, if your images are ten percent smaller
>than these estimates, on average, multiply your storage estimates by 90
>percent. Because storage costs are a small part of overall conversion
>costs, these slight variations are generally not a problem in planning.]
>
>1 scanned page (8 1/2 by 11 inches) (CCITT G4 compressed) = 50 KiloBytes
>(KByte) (on average)
>
>1 file cabinet (4 drawer) (10,000 pages on average) = 500 MegaBytes (MByte)
>= 1 CD ROM
>
>2 file cabinets = 1,000 MBytes = 1 GigaByte (GByte); 10 file cabinets = 1
>DVD (see below)
>
>2,000 file cabinets = 1,000 GBytes = 1 TeraByte (TByte); 2,000 file
>cabinets = 200 DVDs
>
>1 banker's box (2,500 pages) = 1 file drawer = 2 linear feet of files = 125
>MBytes
>
>8 banker's boxes = 16 linear feet = 1 GByte; 8,000 boxes = 16,000 linear
>feet = 1 TByte
>
>1 roll of 16 mm microfilm (100 ft) = 2,500 letter size images = 1 banker's
>box = 125 MBytes
>
>1 roll of 35 mm microfilm (100 ft) = 5,000 letter size images (or letter
>size image equivalents) = 250 MBytes
>
>1 microfiche (average) = 100 letter size images; 200 fiche = 20,000 images
>= 1 GByte
>
>[N.B. In many record series, microfiche contain only a few images because
>each fiche represents a single record in the series. In this case filming
>breaks on record boundaries, rather than being continuous. To a lesser
>extent this is also true for roll film. In these cases, the amount of
>storage required depends on the number of images on the film, not the
>number of microfiche or the number of rolls of film.]
>
>Scanned aperture card images require the same storage as the document or
>drawing in the aperture would require at its physical, one-to-one,
>full-size, un-microphotographed size.
>
>1 E size drawing (48 inches by 36 inches) = 16 letter size pages (8 1/2 by
>11 inches);
>
>[D size = 8 pages; C size = 4 pages; B size = 2 pages; A size = 1 page
>//old E size 48 x 36 in., new E size 44 x 34 in. (A0 size is the ISO
>European size equivalent nomenclature for E size), D size (A1) 34 x 22, C
>size (A2) 22 x 17, B size (A3) 11 x 17, A size (A4) 8½ x 11 // F size 28 x
>40, Roll sizes: G size 11 x 22 ½ to 11 x 90, H size 28 x 44 to 28 x 143, J
>size 34 x 56 to 34 by 176, K size 40 x 56 to 40 x 143 in. // For
>newspapers, a double truck (center fold) full broadsheet is 24 x 36 inches,
>equivalent to an old D size drawing.]
>
>1 hour compressed color video = 2 GBytes (DVD, MPEG 2) (image quality
>dependent)
>
>1 hour audio = 10 MBytes (dictation, answering machine) to 500 MBytes (a CD
>holds 74 minutes of music)
>
>1 color picture = 10 KBytes (thumbnail) to 5 MBytes (for each of 100 photos
>on a 500 MByte photo CD)
>
>[N.B. The size of the compressed file for a scanned photograph depends on
>the resolution (DPI: Dots Per Inch) and the detail (information) in the
>photograph. The detail in a photograph is dependent on the size of the
>negative and the quality of the film and the camera and lens (It is not
>related to the print size unless the print is smaller than the negative).
>The resolution of the scan should be chosen to match the detail of the
>photograph. For most cameras, films, and formats 35 mm and smaller, the 5
>MByte Photo CD format (3,072 by 2,048 pixels) captures all the information
>in the image. N.B. this is in dots per image rather than dots per inch.]
>
>1 Chest X-ray = 1 MegaByte (14 x 17 inches), 150 DPI (Dots Per Inch), 12
>bits (compressed)
>
>[(12 bits per pixel, provides 4,096 shades of grey) (wavlet compression,
>lossless mode, has FDA 510(k) approval) / (150 DPI, 12 bit images
>recommended by American College of Radiology for primary reads) / 14 x 17
>Chest X-ray =200 KiloBytes (for secondary reads: wavlet compression, lossy
>mode, has FDA 510(k) approval)]
>
>1 Byte (B)(common usage) = 8 bits (b) = 1 character; 1 Unicode Byte = 16
>bits = 1 character
>
>[1,000 Bytes =~ (~ about) 1 KiloByte; 1,000 KBytes =~ 1 MegaByte; 1,000
>MBytes =~ 1 GigaByte; 1,000 GBytes =~ 1 TeraByte; 1,000 TBytes =~ 1
>PetaByte; 1,000 PBytes =~ 1 ExaByte]
>
>Modem = 33 Kbit per second = 2 pages per minute (~$30.00 per month for a
>standard phone line)
>
>ISDN (1 voice channel) = 56 Kbit per second = 5 pages per minute (~$50.00
>per month)(ISDN charge)
>
>T1 (24 voice channels) = 1.544 Mbit per second = 3 pages per second
>(~$1,000.00 per month)
>
>Ethernet (CSMA/CD) = 1 Mbit per second (effective) or 10 Mbit per second
>(nominal) = 2 pages per second
>
>OC3 ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) = 155 Mbit per second = 300 pages per
>second
>
>OC192 (SONET optical fiber) = 10 Gbit per second = 20,000 pages (2 file
>cabinets) per second
>
>Optical carrier frequency = 400 THz (40,000 cycles used for every OC192 bit
>transmitted)
>
>[N.B. Spelling out Byte and bit whenever used considerably reduces
>confusion as files stored as Bytes are transmitted as bits.]
>
>1 DVD (Digital Video Disk) (same physical size as a CD ROM) = 7.4 GByte
>(WORM)
>
>[(WORM: Write Once, Read Many) (2 sided, 1 layer per side); = 5.2 GByte RAM
>or RW (overwrite, rewrite) (2 sided, 1 layer per side); = 17 GBytes (ROM)
>(2 sided, 2 layers per side). Multimedia: 5 channel (theater quality
>surround sound)(5.1, Dolby AC-3) / 96 KHz / 24 bit audio, 8 languages , 32
>subtitles, and about 135 minutes (long enough to accommodate 94% of all
>movies) of high quality (720 horizontal lines) video on each of 4 layers.
>The file format is ISO 13346 UDF (Universal Disk Format) which harmonizes
>all CD recording standards including ISO 9660. Available in 1996. A
>future technology, 3rd generation blue lasers [sort of a blue light
>special], should yield a 40 GByte ROM for HDTV.]
>
>1 pulp tree (loblolly pine) = 1/10th cord of wood = 10,000 pages = 1 File
>Cabinet = 4 banker's boxes = 1/2 GByte
>
>[1 lumber tree (20 inch diameter, 110 ft tall, 50 years old) = 1 cord, 10
>pulp tree (8 in. dia., 50 ft tall, 20 yrs old) = 1 cord, 1 cord = 4 x 4 x 8
>ft = 128 cubic ft (75 cubic feet of wood)]
>
>1 wordprocessor or OCR'ed (Optical Character Recognition) page = 5 KBytes
>(all pages listed above are scanned pages)
>
>1 compressed page of COLD (Computer Output to Laser Disk) or COOL (Computer
>Output On-Line) = 1 KBytes
>
>Minimum commercial scanning cost for backfile conversion (more than 1
>million pages) ~ 5 cents per page
>
>
>Search by:
>
>Database entry/Unique identifier
>Full text/Fuzzy search
>Nested folders/Aliased folders
>Concept/Thesaurus search
>Document structure (SGML)
>Hyperlink traversal/annotation
>Email{ed}link/Workflow link
>Card catalog/Finding aid
>Sequential search/Date scanned
>Log of reading history/Date entered
>Bibliography/Citation counts
>ActiveX (Object Link) link
>Spatial /Temporal coordinates (GIS)
>Internet agents/Popularity chart
>Time Code (SMPTE)/GPS orientation
>Image Matching / Image Analysis
>Thumb Print / Physiological ID
>Combination of any or all of the above
>
>
>The raster image is the image of record: (OCR'ed/vectorized images
>constitute re-authoring/re-engineering)
>Rev 30
>
>http://www.ArchiveBuilders.com mailto:SteveGilheany@ArchiveBuilders.com 1147
>Manhattan Avenue, Suite 322, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 Tel: (310) 937-7000
>Fax: (310) 937-7001
>
>-----
>Course Description
>-----
>
>The above are two of the one-page handouts for the following course:
>
>UCLA Extension will present a three day class on Document Imaging and
>Document Management in Downtown Los Angeles at the World Trade Center, next
>to the Westin Bonaventure Hotel (800) 228-3000 (213) 624-1000 [Many other
>motels and hotels are available.] The dates are September 25, 26, and 27,
>Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. To
>accommodate fly-in students, the class meets from 1 PM to 9 PM on Thursday
>and Friday, and from 9 AM to 5:00 PM on Saturday. The fee is $375.00.
>This course is for managers who have been assigned to specify, install or
>manage a document imaging system. Students will learn about the technology
>of scanning, importing, transmitting, storing, protecting, locating,
>retrieving, viewing, and printing documents.. Image and document formats,
>multimedia, rich text, GIS (Geographic Information Systems), CAD (Computer
>Aided Design), and image enabled databases will be discussed. The course
>also covers the integration of the DVD, DirecTV, DirecPC, Cable, Telephony,
>the Internet and PC. UCLA Extension registration is (310) 825-9971. Ask
>for course X 814.14, registration number B4004. For information, please
>contact the instructor, at mailto:SteveGilheany@ArchiveBuilders.com. (310)
>937-7000. Instructor: Steve Gilheany, BA CS, MBA, MLS Specialization in
>Information Science, CDIA (Certified Document Imaging System Architect),
>Sr. Systems Engineer, Archive Builders.
>
>The following is offered to reduce duplication: This posting has been cross
>listed on the following lists: ALA-LITA-L, Archives, DigLib, DigLib-ns,
>DPRA, ERECS-L, HIM-L, ImageLib, PACS-L, RecMgmt, and SLA-DITA. If you can
>suggest other lists that might have readers that are interested in the
>topic, please let me know and I will subscribe to those lists and post this
>message to those lists. If you can post it more easily than I can, please
>let me know and I will ask one person to post it to each list
>
>Steve Gilheany
>Tel: (310) 937-4757 Fax: (310) 937-4758
mailto:>SteveGilheany@worldnet.att.net